Utilizing our FRACAS mannequin, we have a look at the important thing 2024 Masters predictions forward of the motion at Augusta Nationwide Golf Membership.
Hey, mates.
With spring’s arrival, all eyes have turned to Augusta Nationwide Golf Membership for the 2024 Masters Event.
Since final yr’s version, extra gamers have been signed by the Public Funding Fund of Saudi Arabia’s LIV Golf, together with the 2023 Masters champ Jon Rahm. With extra of the highest gamers on LIV’s rosters and no finish to the PGA Tour-LIV combat in sight, having the world’s prime gamers collectively is changing into a uncommon occasion.
Augusta Nationwide has featured no main modifications since Rahm’s victory, and will probably be performed at 7,555 yards. Climate was a consider final yr’s occasion, and we might see one thing comparable this weekend with heavy storms on faucet for Thursday’s opening spherical. Friday onwards seems to be like great climate, if a bit breezy, so even when there are some first-round delays, it seemingly received’t be the waterlogged course it was at occasions final yr.
Should you’re new to Augusta Nationwide, or simply need some recommendation on which a part of the course to give attention to, we suggest holes 12 by way of 16. Our pleasure index for golf programs goals to quantify how vital every shot is on every gap.
Utilizing this metric, holes 12, 13, 15, and 16 are 4 of the 5 most vital holes on the golf course. They’re the holes on the course the place, traditionally, every shot has a larger affect on a participant’s rating than the opposite holes.
Holes 13 and 15 are the par 5s with the very best eagle charges on the course (3.24% and a couple of.76%, respectively), whereas additionally being the par 5s with the very best double-bogey or worse charges on the course (3.94% and 4.41%, respectively).
Who Will Win the 2024 Masters? The FRACAS Picks
Our mannequin had Rahm, the eventual winner a yr in the past, atop the 2023 Masters projections at 8.48%. After 100,000 simulations of the 2024 event, Scottie Scheffler sits atop our modeled win proportion at 8.76%.
Scheffler is an unimaginable ball-striking star who could also be determining the quick sport and putter in time for golf’s greatest tournaments. Scheffler, who went back-to-back at The Gamers Championship final month at TPC Sawgrass, is No. 1 in our world FRACAS leaderboard in each present and long-term FRACAS.
He’s nearly 0.3 strokes higher per spherical than the following greatest (Rahm) in long-term FRACAS, however a full half-stroke higher in present FRACAS. If Scheffler putts nicely this week, he has one of the best likelihood to win the inexperienced jacket.
Rahm, who has the second-highest win chance, has performed simply OK since his transfer to LIV and his present FRACAS (2.202) is a smidge decrease than his long run FRACAS (2.225). Of the highest gamers, the defending champion is probably the most thrilling to look at (extra on that in a bit), whereas additionally being among the many most constant golfers within the discipline. He hasn’t performed in a non-LIV occasion since November of final yr, so he is available in a little bit of an unknown for the primary time shortly.
Xander Schauffele has 11 top-10 finishes in main championships, however he has but to recover from the hump and truly win one. His kind, although, has by no means been higher than it’s heading into this yr’s Masters. He has six top-10s in eight tournaments to begin 2024 and suits the Scheffler/Cantlay mildew of being extremely regular. These two are the one golfers within the discipline with a better projected lower proportion than Schauffele. He’s projected for the third-highest birdie or higher price within the discipline (22.06%) to go together with the eight-lowest double bogey or worse price within the discipline (1.76%). He’ll in all probability should be atop the leaderboard or inside only a few strokes of the lead heading into the ultimate day if he desires to win. He’s not a golfer who has a excessive variance in rating outcomes.
Rory McIlory has been reasonably quiet heading into the 2024 Masters. Like Rahm, he’s a little bit under his baseline proper now however stays probably the most boom-or-bust golfers within the sport. Our mannequin initiatives him for the fourth-highest birdie or higher price within the discipline (21.77%) whereas additionally projecting him to rank 69th in double bogey or worse. The large quantity has haunted McIlroy up to now, and 2023 confirmed how he can exit on Friday with out a lot as sniffing the lower line. However, he’s so immensely proficient that his variance can swing the opposite manner, too.
Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay are mainstays atop main leaderboards today, although neither have been in a position to pull off a victory but. Each are good, regular golfers who will want 4 constant rounds to have an opportunity this weekend. Cantlay, particularly, is the mannequin of gradual and regular. He’s projected for the bottom double or worse price within the discipline (1.37%) and the very best par price within the discipline (61.73%).
Joaquin Niemann acquired a particular exemption into the Masters this yr after 4 consecutive top-five finishes in non-LIV worldwide tournaments. He’s the most popular golfer within the prime of the sector, presently enjoying about 0.4 strokes above his long-term baseline. It’s laborious to know what we’ll get from Niemann after such a robust offseason. His metrics bear a few of that uncertainty, probably not shining in any of the scoring projections we’ve referenced for the opposite golfers.
Wyndham Clark, Tyrrell Hatton and Russell Henley end off the golfers with the ten highest projected win charges. Clark, who’s the golfer with the best-course match within the discipline, enters the event twenty eighth within the discipline in FRACAS, however he has the eighth-highest win proportion. The mannequin sees one thing about the way in which the 2023 U.S. Open champ scores, the way in which Augusta asks a golfer to attain, and finds an entire match. This will probably be his first Masters and historical past has not been variety to debutants at Augusta Nationwide, however our mannequin thinks Clark will discover the course to his liking.
So Many Golfers, Who Ought to I Watch?
Masters protection is one of the best protection you’ll get all yr. Viewers have the power to look at featured teams, featured holes, sections of the golf course or actually any golfer they need. Utilizing our golf simulator and projected gap scoring, we will bucket teams of gamers into a number of forms of viewing experiences.
The Curler Coasters
To seek out “curler coaster” gamers, we will have a look at how they rank within the discipline in projected birdie or higher price and projected non-par price. Sure, there may be some overlap between these two concepts, but it surely additionally encourages the rating system to search out higher golfers.
Byeong Hun (Ben) An, Shane Lowry, Ludvig Aberg, Nick Taylor and Rahm headline this group. We talked about the joy stage in terms of Rahm earlier, and that is what we have been referencing. Ben An is thirty eighth in our projected win proportion however fifteenth in projected birdie or higher price. Meaning there are fairly just a few bogeys to counteract the birdies.
Eire’s Shane Lowry is at all times a enjoyable watch, however so is Sweden’s debutant Ludvig Aberg. Aberg turned some heads through the 2023 Ryder Cup, and is one other first timer the mannequin likes to succeed.
Most Thrilling Teams (In Order of Pleasure With Tee Instances):
- Group 26: Adam Scott, Sam Burns, Cameron Younger (Thursday 1:12 p.m. ET/Friday 10:06 a.m.)
- Group 10: Russell Henley, Joaquin Niemann, Nick Taylor (9:48 a.m./1 p.m.)
- Group 22: Akshay Bhatia, J.T. Poston, Shane Lowry (12:24 p.m./9:12 a.m.)
The Tortoises
Borrowing from The Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoises are nice golfers who simply hit sensible golf photographs. These gamers lead the sector in projected par price.
This group options Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Scheffler and Tony Finau. They hit the greens in regulation and two-putt for par. Kim has been recognized to actually blow up a gap every so often, and when he does it’s a spectacular explosion, however these are uncommon and he’s an especially regular golfer.
Should you like fascinated with golf in a risk-averse manner (my brother is furiously nodding his head studying this), that is the group to look at. Brooks Koepka, final yr’s runner-up with Phil Mickelson and the winner of the 2023 PGA Championship, is that second trio together with Open Championship winner Brian Harman.
Most Tortoisey Teams (In Order of Tortoiseness):
- Group 14: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele (10:42 a.m. ET/1:48 p.m.)
- Group 28: Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Tom Kim (1:36 p.m./10:30 a.m.)
- Group 11: Patrick Cantlay, Min Woo Lee, Rickie Fowler (10:06 a.m./1:12 p.m.)
The Better of the Finest
On this class we have now the golfers who’re in all probability the most secure to look at if you’d like nice, stable golf. This group is Scheffler, Rahm, Schauffele, Hovland, Henley and Jordan Spieth.
Rahm and Scheffler have already appeared in a gaggle, however they’re clearly one of the best gamers on this planet and present up on numerous completely different leaderboards. The opposite 4 are simply high quality watches who will all seemingly flip in stable performances.
Better of the Finest Teams:
- Group 14: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele (10:42 a.m. ET/1:48 p.m.)
- Group 10: Russell Henley, Joaquin Niemann, Nick Taylor (9:48 a.m./1 p.m.)
- Group 15: Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith (10:54 a.m./2 p.m.)
Masters 2024 Worth Performs
Let’s have a look at the gamers who ought to be thought-about one of the best bets when it comes to worth performs in Georgia this weekend. Viktor Hovland is 40-1 in consensus Masters odds, however our FRACAS mannequin places him at 34-1.
Regardless of hovering round 75-1 within the consensus markets, Sam Burns ought to be thought-about at round 50-1. And J.T. Poston isn’t as huge of a longshot as his 250-1 odds recommend — FRACAS places him at simply 78-1.
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